## बाजार और अर्थव्यवस्था: क्या हुआ बड़ा बदलाव?
Waning south-west monsoon, reinforced by an amplified Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) pulse, could energise weather disturbances over both the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea next week
Outlook until Monday indicates heavier rain (blue and pink) for Kerala, adjoining ghats in west Tamil Nadu as well as over Sri Lanka as winds seek to reverse direction from south-westerly to north-easterly. | Photo Credit: www.tropicaltidbits.com
Countdown to the withdrawal of the south-west monsoon is gathering pace, even as a potentially stormy transition begins to set the stage for the 2026 north-east monsoon. Isolated heavy rainfall is likely over Kerala and Mahe , and Tamil Nadu , Puducherry and Karaikal on Friday and Saturday, and over South Interior Karnataka on Friday, as changing wind patterns herald the seasonal reversal over the South Peninsula.
Global climate models suggest that waning south-west monsoon activity, reinforced by an amplified Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) pulse, could energise weather disturbances over both the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea. While these systems could intensify into monsoon depressions, the immediate outlook does not point to tropical cyclone formation at least in the initial stages.
The US Climate Prediction Centre has put the probability of intensified low-pressure systems developing over either sea at 20-40 per cent during the week beginning October 14 (Wednesday next). The period coincides with the normal onset window for the north-east monsoon over the South Peninsula, following the complete withdrawal of the south-west monsoon from mainland India.
## प्रमुख वित्तीय आंकड़े और कंपनियों का रुख
• Waning south-west monsoon, reinforced by an amplified Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) pulse, could energise weather disturbances over both the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea next week • Outlook until Monday indicates heavier rain (blue and pink) for Kerala, adjoining ghats in west Tamil Nadu as well as over Sri Lanka as winds seek to reverse direction from south-westerly to north-easterly. | Photo Credit: www.tropicaltidbits.com • Countdown to the withdrawal of the south-west monsoon is gathering pace, even as a potentially stormy transition begins to set the stage for the 2026 north-east monsoon. Isolated heavy rainfall is likely over Kerala and Mahe , and Tamil Nadu , Puducherry and Karaikal on Friday and Saturday, and over South Interior Karnataka on Friday, as changing wind patterns herald the seasonal reversal over the South Peninsula. • Global climate models suggest that waning south-west monsoon activity, reinforced by an amplified Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) pulse, could energise weather disturbances over both the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea. While these systems could intensify into monsoon depressions, the immediate outlook does not point to tropical cyclone formation at least in the initial stages. • The US Climate Prediction Centre has put the probability of intensified low-pressure systems developing over either sea at 20-40 per cent during the week beginning October 14 (Wednesday next). The period coincides with the normal onset window for the north-east monsoon over the South Peninsula, following the complete withdrawal of the south-west monsoon from mainland India. • IMD Update: Widespread rain for TN, Kerala, Lakshadweep into weekend • India Meteorological Department (IMD) has already indicated that conditions are becoming favourable for the monsoon to withdraw from additional parts of East India and the northern peninsula, as well as many parts of North-East India, by October 13-14. The retreat would progressively open up the Bay of Bengal, the Arabian Sea and the intervening southern landmass to the circulation patterns associated with the north-east monsoon. • The week that follows (October 21-27) may offer a lower probability of intensified weather systems over either sea than the preceding week, suggesting that the immediate transition phase could be the more active window for the development of rain-bearing disturbances. • A preliminary signal of the seasonal change has emerged from Sri Lanka. The island’s Meteorological Department said on Friday morning that winds had turned south-easterly or become variable, although their speeds remained below the desired levels. The shift provides an early indication of the changing circulation regime expected to extend towards South Peninsular India to the north and north-west. • The seas around Sri Lanka could meanwhile experience strong, gusty winds of 60-70 km/hr and very rough conditions (wave heights of 13-20 feet) during thundershowers. A formal declaration of the north-east monsoon may have to await a more established pattern of wind direction and speed. The announcement could coincide with the season’s arrival over the southern Bay and adjoining South Peninsular India.
## निवेशकों और उपभोक्ताओं के लिए जरूरी बातें
IMD Update: Widespread rain for TN, Kerala, Lakshadweep into weekend
India Meteorological Department (IMD) has already indicated that conditions are becoming favourable for the monsoon to withdraw from additional parts of East India and the northern peninsula, as well as many parts of North-East India, by October 13-14. The retreat would progressively open up the Bay of Bengal, the Arabian Sea and the intervening southern landmass to the circulation patterns associated with the north-east monsoon.
The week that follows (October 21-27) may offer a lower probability of intensified weather systems over either sea than the preceding week, suggesting that the immediate transition phase could be the more active window for the development of rain-bearing disturbances.
A preliminary signal of the seasonal change has emerged from Sri Lanka. The island’s Meteorological Department said on Friday morning that winds had turned south-easterly or become variable, although their speeds remained below the desired levels. The shift provides an early indication of the changing circulation regime expected to extend towards South Peninsular India to the north and north-west.
The seas around Sri Lanka could meanwhile experience strong, gusty winds of 60-70 km/hr and very rough conditions (wave heights of 13-20 feet) during thundershowers. A formal declaration of the north-east monsoon may have to await a more established pattern of wind direction and speed. The announcement could coincide with the season’s arrival over the southern Bay and adjoining South Peninsular India.
The IMD, meanwhile, has retained its forecast of volatile weather over the region through the weekend and into early next week, when the north-east monsoon circulation could begin to take shape. The transition assumes particular significance after a disappointing south-west monsoon, placing considerable stakes on the October-December season for the southern states.
Isolated to scattered rainfall over Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam, Coastal Karnataka, Rayalaseema, South Interior Karnataka, and Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal over next six days. Kerala and Mahe are likely to receive rainfall for three days from Sunday, while Lakshadweep is expected to see rain for four days.
## ताजा स्थिति व आगे का अपडेट
विशेषज्ञों और पर्यवेक्षकों के अनुसार इस कदम के महत्वपूर्ण परिणाम सामने आ सकते हैं। आगे की आधिकारिक घोषणाओं की प्रतीक्षा है।
पूरी खबर, विस्तृत घटनाक्रम और विश्लेषण पढ़ने के लिए क्लिक करें




